The Russian stock market is showing a strong decline from December 6, that is, after raising fears of a political nature. The general decline of the MICEX index during this period was 10.5%, it dropped to a level of 1,350 points. Today, the index takes third in the past few days trying to stop the decline.
At 17:00 the index grew by 1.5% and came close to the mark of 1370 points. This is facilitated by the rise in oil prices. So, Brent adds 0.95% and traded at $ 108 / barrel. Provides support and growth in the index futures S & P500, grown up by 0.7%.
European Summit, held last week, largely disappointed investors. There is no consensus on how to resolve the crisis had been reached. Put forward by France and Germany, the requirements for making changes in the fundamental document of the EU budget discipline have not met the unanimous understanding, which, however, one would expect. The summit once again exposed the fact that a compromise acceptable to all, is unlikely to be achieved.
It may be noted that the international agency Moody’s has pledged in the 1st quarter of next year to review ratings of EU countries, and we can hardly expect them to improve on the results of this test. Do not forget about the threats downgrading of France – the second eurozone economy. It should be understood that such reduction leads to higher new bond issues for the country and its companies, which further worsens the debt situation.
Today we have published data on the consumer price index in the UK. In November, the index, as expected, was 0.2%. In Germany, the statistics on indexes of economic expectations ZEW for December were slightly better than the previous value, but are still in a very negative zone. Thus, the index was -53.8 basis points.
Let me remind you that the main event today is the future of the Fed’s decision on interest rates. It is expected that the Fed will leave it unchanged at the current level of 0.25%. There is also a faint hope that will be announced the launch of a new phase of infusion of liquidity into financial markets. However, in my opinion, in the current launch QE3 is highly unlikely: the Fed pripaset this argument for a more difficult situation.
In general, the world’s markets have been on a neutral background with a slight negative bias. I believe that with the opening of Russian market of U.S. sites a little older. However, this growth will be short-lived – by the end of the week is quite a correction. Indicator of the market is equal to 4 points out of 10, showing a neutral mood of market participants.